Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.513937 0.596748 0.685926 0.788779 0.903799 1.028127 1.172338
2025-03-30 0.371525 0.474721 0.594285 0.741863 0.917855 1.119716 1.367375
2025-04-06 0.279164 0.392115 0.532607 0.717439 0.951178 1.233767 1.597746
2025-04-13 0.206953 0.320991 0.473567 0.687467 0.973781 1.337575 1.827660
2025-04-20 0.162077 0.277384 0.442997 0.689521 1.037175 1.499050 2.146296
2025-04-27 0.123884 0.235362 0.407721 0.680284 1.084882 1.645941 2.461989
2025-05-04 0.097332 0.205392 0.385028 0.685987 1.154580 1.830269 2.846373
2025-05-11 0.075618 0.178118 0.361628 0.687243 1.218257 2.012943 3.245898
2025-05-18 0.054139 0.144855 0.321460 0.655157 1.226956 2.116647 3.542170
2025-05-25 0.037247 0.114858 0.280281 0.614103 1.215706 2.188882 3.798313
2025-06-01 0.027510 0.097149 0.258576 0.604129 1.254956 2.343477 4.192498
2025-06-08 0.019956 0.081521 0.237252 0.591048 1.287006 2.489231 4.584315
2025-06-15 0.015652 0.073378 0.231549 0.610403 1.384366 2.758828 5.206450
2025-06-22 0.010461 0.059071 0.206880 0.585347 1.395423 2.883112 5.601980
2025-06-29 0.007248 0.049324 0.190709 0.575853 1.435781 3.062917 6.105248
2025-07-06 0.004789 0.040276 0.173162 0.559418 1.459929 3.215913 6.574568
2025-07-13 0.003486 0.035412 0.166487 0.568400 1.538651 3.476416 7.249550
2025-07-20 0.002382 0.030149 0.156408 0.566493 1.593601 3.696686 7.867935
2025-07-27 0.001702 0.026628 0.151062 0.576444 1.676631 3.978223 8.615612
2025-08-03 0.001171 0.023198 0.144543 0.581739 1.749688 4.245861 9.354175
2025-08-10 0.000659 0.018306 0.129233 0.557089 1.748122 4.362871 9.818390
2025-08-17 0.000326 0.013846 0.112693 0.523773 1.720056 4.422276 10.176157
2025-08-24 0.000184 0.011476 0.104890 0.517181 1.758877 4.625295 10.823297